An Iron Hand in a Velvet Glove

As hard as I tried to find a different topic this week, the world’s attention was overwhelmingly fixed on the Alaska meeting. In that sense, I’m obliged to comment through the lens of what it means for sanctions pressure going forward.

1. No near-term escalation
Don’t expect fresh US sanctions in the next few weeks. The optics of dialogue matter more right now. The next few weeks are likely to pass without surprises.

2. Secondary tariffs most likely on pause
President’s Trump Executive Order from 6 August created a 25% tariff tool aimed at third countries [read India] importing Russian oil. We discussed that last week. Chances are that shall be delayed now. Would you pick a fight with New Delhi while trying to keep talks with Moscow on track?

3. A win-win for both leaders
No signatures, no deal; however, both leaders walked away with political credit. President Putin returned to the global stage with ceremony, capped by a high military honor as the US B-2 Spirit flew overhead. President Trump reinforced his image as a statesman willing to engage directly at the highest level.

4. Moscow’s balancing act
Expect Moscow to keep battlefield pressure on Ukraine while keeping talks with Washington alive. Incremental gains on the ground + open doors in diplomacy = leverage. Think “iron hand in a velvet glove.”

5. Europe’s drumbeat likely to continue
The EU and UK most likely to keep rolling out with new sanctions packages. They add compliance risk and long-term pressure, but little immediate political bite. More signal than shock.

6. Downside risk: escalation
The world still runs on the US dollar. Washington does have tools such as deeper financial restrictions, tech bans, and logistics choke points. However, a sudden move would carry heavy costs and weaken US negotiating leverage. Possible, but not probable.

7. Upside risk: narrow carve-outs
Don’t expect sweeping relief. The most likely positive scenario is limited general licenses in specific areas IF there is a gradual de-escalation. A Nixon-Mao moment? Too early, too soon.

Bottom line: The Alaska summit hit pause, not reset. Sanctions are in a holding pattern: neither sharply escalating, nor meaningfully easing. For now, businesses and policymakers should plan for continuity wrapped in uncertainty.

I’d be interested in your perspective: do you see this pause holding, or do you expect a swing back toward escalation? If you found this useful, consider sharing it with colleagues who follow sanctions, trade, and geopolitics.

Thanks for reading.

Alexey